Joined: 12 Nov 2005 Last Visit: 22 Mar 2020 Posts: 4574 Location: In the House of the Cosmic Frog
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 6:03 am Post subject: Incredible
When that Lost Tamoachan closed the other day for less a $1k, my heart sank for that seller. I can't believe his buds didn't give him more support. The Ghost Tower didn't do too well either, considering there hasn't been a numbered one up for awhile.
Do you guys think that this is a beginning or an end? _________________ "This is cool."
Joined: 13 Nov 2007 Last Visit: 01 Mar 2019 Posts: 224 Location: Seattle, WA USA
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 7:10 am Post subject:
Tough financial times. I think we are temporarily seeing a dip in spending on hobbies, particularly the big-ticket items. I see it as the beginning of a phase.
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 5:48 am Post subject:
Quote:
I see it as the beginning of a phase
If you're lucky...
I see it as the beginning of a downward spiral. Seriously, I'm no economist but what are the ramifications of this current situation? In the 90's, we cut down the Army drastically. I was in it... They were getting rid of guys left and right. Like the hardened veteran guys that you really wish were in the Army all got forced out for the most part. That's a major reason why there was a surplus of $$$ to my knowledge. No new equipment or repairs either. That stuff came back to haunt us in Iraq...
"Downsizing" aint happening again anytime in our near future. They might even have to increase the military now. Where will they get that 700B? You know it will likely cost a lot more than that and of course there will be billions misplaced/misspent... People will still be going broke. I think it's a no win. It just defys logic to me that this is going to have a happy ending.
I think they're all in a state of shock/disbelief and were screwed!
I'm no economist though
So yeah, I think prices will be coming down on high end Dungeons and Dragons collectable items soon enough...
Joined: 11 Sep 2004 Last Visit: 28 Jun 2013 Posts: 2977 Location: NYC
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 1:21 pm Post subject:
Rifter wrote:
I see it as the beginning of a downward spiral. Seriously, I'm no economist but what are the ramifications of this current situation? In the 90's, we cut down the Army drastically. I was in it... They were getting rid of guys left and right. Like the hardened veteran guys that you really wish were in the Army all got forced out for the most part. That's a major reason why there was a surplus of $$$ to my knowledge. No new equipment or repairs either. That stuff came back to haunt us in Iraq...
I can confirm this to a degree. My better half's father is a retired military officer in the northern VA area. He used to do all sorts of freelance work in the defense industry after he retired in the late 80s. Clinton ushered in a different era regarding military spending. The cold war was over, and aside from a few pesky rogue states, it was viewed that a strong military was not necessary. Her father went into substitute teaching and eventually a full time teaching position in a local high school before retired from that 5 years ago. Once Bush II took office, the military spending starting flowing heavily around the beltway once again, and this was before sept11. Her father went back into military contract work as it is very lucrative.
Aged military equipment aside, I think it was a very effective budget management decision. Hindsight is 20/20, but I think they screwed up in not dramatically increasing the budget for intell, globally. Watchful eyes with covert interception along with proper diplomacy in the world is still better than a large conventional military, IMO.
But I digress. Clinton enjoyed an era of impressive economic growth led by the fallen technology bubble. This was the primary reason why he was able to balance the books. _________________
Joined: 11 Sep 2004 Last Visit: 28 Jun 2013 Posts: 2977 Location: NYC
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject:
CorPse wrote:
I was a kid in the '70s and I have to say that seemed a lot worse than this...
... so far ...
I suppose we could plunge into a depression, but it seems unlikely.
And I think people are particularly gun-shy this week.
My guess is that this is a dip that will last for awhile.
cP
Maybe it was because I was raised in a poor rural situation, but I would tend to agree. I think there are a lot of safeguards in place now for poverty than there ever was before. Plus, I think people have access to a range of affordable things compared to manufactured goods in the 70s. I know that sounds weird. But I can still purchase a pair of blue jeans for the same price they were going for in the early 80s. _________________
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject:
Quote:
Aged military equipment aside, I think it was a very effective budget management decision. Hindsight is 20/20, but I think they screwed up in not dramatically increasing the budget for intell, globally. Watchful eyes with covert interception along with proper diplomacy in the world is still better than a large conventional military, IMO.
I was stationed in Leavenworth (early 90's) and it's basically our big Army think tank. Just reading paperwork that was readily available there it was apparent that the Army saw this situation coming. Unfortunately it takes time to transition a military, especially when there's no obvious threat. There was a great concern of urban guerilla warfare and our limitations with that...
I did not like my MOS and when re enlisting asked for an interrogator MOS. I took the DLAB (language aptitude test) and was qualified to learn some arab languages. I was denied though because we had just defeated Iraq and obviously wouldn't need those guys...
Now Russia is able to be aggresive again because we have transitioned into another type of Army.
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject:
Quote:
But I digress. Clinton enjoyed an era of impressive economic growth led by the fallen technology bubble. This was the primary reason why he was able to balance the books.
Clinton got lucky. I think it's really just a situation of being a victim of circumstance as far as the U.S. President goes. I think whoever wins the next one is doomed to a 4 year term...
Joined: 25 Jul 2007 Last Visit: 19 Nov 2024 Posts: 231 Location: Wichita, KS
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:50 am Post subject: Re: Incredible
tfm wrote:
When that Lost Tamoachan closed the other day for less a $1k, my heart sank for that seller. I can't believe his buds didn't give him more support. The Ghost Tower didn't do too well either, considering there hasn't been a numbered one up for awhile.
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 6:36 am Post subject:
Quote:
This seems to directly contradict the results of Paul Stormberg's poll over on the Acauem
Not sure how reliable a poll like that really is...
If the art goes down I will certainly eat it on one hand but since it's unique and I do love it I'm happy nonetheless. Is it the same with rare modules and stuff? Is there any hype behind those "values"? Why would anybody who owns a bunch of rares say, "yeah, the value is going to decline...". That would defy logic.
Joined: 12 Nov 2005 Last Visit: 22 Mar 2020 Posts: 4574 Location: In the House of the Cosmic Frog
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 7:17 am Post subject:
Quote:
That would defy logic.
As an owner many rares I would like to say that the values of rare TSR are holding firm, but that is not supported by the data of the past 12 months. The fact of the matter is that an item is only worth what someone else will pay for it.
People are paying less now and have been for awhile.
Uniques/near uniques will still do okay, but they don't govern the market. The woodies and high-end modules are all going down. There is a cure for this trend, but that requires a concerted effort by those who have the collections to actively promote the hobby by encouraging new people to become involved. We, quite frankly, have not made the case. We have managed to snipe each other to death, but as anyone can see, that methodology lacks inspiration.
Coupled with a tight economy and an aging fan base, our hobby faces extinction. _________________ "This is cool."
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 7:26 am Post subject:
I think there could be a significant base of collectors considering a lot of 30 somethings have fond memories of the cartoon at least...
You're right in that it's way too Dog eat Dog. There's also a phenomena online in that a new person will come along and visit some forum (this happens nearly everywhere that I have seen) and get torpedoed by someone "In the know" or by regular users. These things tend to get very territorial for whatever reasons... I think it leaves a lot of potential parties disillusioned.
Joined: 25 Jul 2007 Last Visit: 19 Nov 2024 Posts: 231 Location: Wichita, KS
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject:
Rifter wrote:
Quote:
This seems to directly contradict the results of Paul Stormberg's poll over on the Acauem
Not sure how reliable a poll like that really is...
Oh I agree that the poll's not scientifically valid, but it's interesting that nearly all of the poll respondents on the Acaeum see a bear higher-end market (holding or even or getting better), whereas on the Tome, it's been the bear/declining for quite awhile.
What's interesting to me is the difference in opinion. I think both groups have a vested interest in high-end gaming collectibles, so I would expect more congruity.
Joined: 25 Jul 2007 Last Visit: 19 Nov 2024 Posts: 231 Location: Wichita, KS
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 1:41 pm Post subject:
Rifter wrote:
There's also a phenomena online in that a new person will come along and visit some forum (this happens nearly everywhere that I have seen) and get torpedoed by someone "In the know" or by regular users. These things tend to get very territorial for whatever reasons... I think it leaves a lot of potential parties disillusioned.
Can you elaborate on this, Rifter? I'm not sure that I follow what you mean: that established collectors rip off newbies??
Joined: 12 Nov 2005 Last Visit: 22 Mar 2020 Posts: 4574 Location: In the House of the Cosmic Frog
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 5:34 pm Post subject:
Do you really think that collectors who have poured tens of thousands of dollars into their collections are going to stand up and admit that the value of those collections are going down? Everybody knows [Great L. Cohen tune, btw] that the high-end market has been driven for the past 5 years by a group of about 20 people. That's not much of a base and it speaks poorly for the long-term health of the hobby. If that trend is going to change, we have to do better. _________________ "This is cool."
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject:
Quote:
that established collectors rip off newbies??
Nope, I don't mean that at all! Established collectors are likely the best human resource for a newbie. The above quote might be true for some dealer types though
There's more of a condescending situation is what I meant... Also, the rules of ettiquette seem to apply differently to various people on various sites. I can maybe word it better when I'm fully awake
Joined: 26 Jul 2007 Last Visit: 20 Nov 2009 Posts: 4
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:21 am Post subject:
While, yes, we are in tough finacial times, I always considered that some things were immune, and that gaming stuff was one of those things!
Perhaps I was wrong though, maybe those with seemingly bottomless pockets are not buying as much as they used to, or maybe they are waiting for the market to bottom out, and start buying rares all over again.
TFM says that there are 20 or so people forcing the value of the rares/super-rares/uniques and I think he has probably hit the nail on the head. I guess the thing with buying rare D&D stuff is that the market is always going to be quite limited - yes there are perhaps more guys of a certain age getting nostalgic, but I think you'll find more of them are going to be buying B1 or G1 rather than a LT,DG or the like - lets face it a grand + is a lot of money to pay for a module, whichever way you look at it!
So what happens if this 20 or so people starts to reduce in number, or drop out of the hobby? Once you have 3 or more OB3's and a handful of Tsoj's where is the joy? Seriously I would love to have these but I have to be honest having multiples just strikes me as a bit pointless - I know they have increased in value over time, and you would be unlikely to ever lose money on one, but what really is the point? Realistically there are far better ways of investing your money than this hobby. I genuinely believe that there are a few of those 20 who are doing it simply to be able to say that they have x% of the worlds rares - perhaps this is the geek equivalent of buying a sportscar as an extension of your masculinity! (I say this as A) a geek and B) the owner of a crap car )
To sum up - values of rares - IMO these 2 examples were a blip, prices will steadily rise for perhaps 3 or 4 more years and then level out. (and in 10 years it just won't be an issue because no-one will be buying or selling them at all - this could well be too true)
Joined: 12 Nov 2005 Last Visit: 22 Mar 2020 Posts: 4574 Location: In the House of the Cosmic Frog
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:39 am Post subject:
I don't mind if they drop a bit. It means there's the chance of new people getting involved in the hobby. The rest of the market, the mid-range and other material, seems to be doing fine, being less affected by the economic environment. When the market for the rares picks back up, I'll start letting go of most of mine. I don't think I'll ever see a brick-and-mortar facility for RPGs, so my philanthropic impulse for collecting multiples in the first place (I wanted to donate them as a research foundation) doesn't hold anymore. There are lots of people who want an ST1, GT, LT, or LCOT, but $1500-$2000 is a significant amount of money, especially now.
All of that said, it's hard to watch a seller get 60%-70% for a thing they could have sold a year or two ago for much more. The down-trend started with the 1st woodgrains. They hit a magic number at $4K. I think two or three sold for that figure and then down they went. I don't see that number ever happening again. I'd like to be wrong on that score, but the economy has been damaged. The 20 or so collectors who have a budget of $30K a year for collecting isn't getting any bigger, and if recent events are an indication, the circle is shrinking even now. Short of a unified push by the top collectors in the world to really promote this hobby, I do not see a way out of the valuation problem. Time is rumored to heal all wounds, of course, but I don't see that happening with the current cadre of personalities. If there's going to be a critical mass in RPG collecting, it will happen with the next generation. We've f*cked it up. _________________ "This is cool."
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