Joined: 25 Jul 2007 Last Visit: 18 Jun 2017 Posts: 148 Location: Cairns, Queensland, Australia
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject:
Well.. I must say it looks like we may be starting to live in interesting times.. The aussie dollar has dropped about 30% in the last couple of weeks so I have very little intention now of bidding (on the plus side for me, even if prices are down, if its less than 20% than my paintings have actually appreciated.. LOL.. see there is a silver lining... So no more crowing from me about the exchange rate ATM...
For those of you not of the Heritrage mailing list (I would expect not that many) they sent out an email re the economy and themselves which (of course skewed to their side of the argument) I though I might post as well...
Brette:)
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October 10, 2008
Dear Brett,
We've been fielding a high volume of calls lately from potential consignors and buyers wondering how a tumultuous world economy is affecting the auction business in general, our business in particular, and their investments specifically. So we felt it appropriate to take a few moments to explain to you, our valued clients, exactly how we at Heritage are experiencing the current economic climate.
People are panicked in many corners — and rightly so — but not here at Heritage. We have weathered economic upheavals before, and for years we have planned for days like these. We're now diversified across 26 categories. We've learned to see that uncertain economic times mean increased auction activity across the broad spectrum of our collectibles divisions by both buyers and sellers.
Collectibles, especially coins, remain extremely liquid. Over the last three months, as Wall Street has been reeling, our auction and private treaty sales have risen steadily. Every day people who are in businesses where capital is no longer readily available turn to us for liquidity. We offer cash advances to stem the tide of an emptying bank account, and a 30+ year record of paying every one of our 45,000 consignors in full and exactly on schedule. Never before have we had so many quality consignments in-house for upcoming auctions.
Conversely, our buyers continue to vie aggressively at auction for coins and collectibles they love, knowing that they are diversifying against inflation, and through that diversification, protecting their holdings of paper assets for the future. In fact, we cannot remember a time when our clientele has been more engaged, or when we've seen as many new and active buyers.
Our $35 million September 24-27 Long Beach Expo auction of coins and currency registered more bidders (over 14,000 of them!) than any auction in our history. Our Entertainment, Space Memorabilia, and Natural History auctions over the past 10 days were consistently strong events with above average sell-through and very happy consignors. And here are some hard and fast facts on Heritage weekly coin, currency, movie posters, comics and sports auctions for just the last quarter (i.e. the last 30 days versus the 30 day period starting four months ago):
*Our number of successful bidders is up by 11.5%.
*Our number of lots actually sold in each weekly auction is up 39.95%.
*Our average lot value is up 8.49%.
*Our total sales volume is up 43.34%
Heritage remains firmly rooted to a business model of transparency, honesty and fairness. We also believe in our consignors, our buyers and our expert staff. Economic struggles are like a Chinese finger trap: Panic and it tightens, but stay calm and it slips right off. Coins and currency may not garner the headlines, but our market has held steady, and risen in many areas, even throughout these difficult months. Coins in particular, and collectibles in general, are a wonderful hedge in a market like we're seeing now. This we know from experience and study of history.
Rare coin prices, along with many other collectibles, actually rose during the Great Depression, as well as during the recession and accompanying real estate and stock market collapse of 1974. During the oil crisis of 1979, we saw coin prices rise dramatically, rewarding owners at a time when their stocks and many other assets were plummeting. Many of our clients saved their houses or businesses with funds from prudent coin investments made with us that we sold for them at auction in early 1980. And the 2 years following the 1987 stock market collapse saw rare coin prices more than double, on average (source: PCGS 3000 Index).
Collectibles markets are often counter-cyclical to widespread turmoil, meaning owners can actually profit when they need money the most. At worst, these categories are generally only minimally affected, in the short-term, by Wall Street's wild fluctuations. And coins and collectibles have a steady record of bouncing back even if their value takes a hit.
If you wish to sell, Heritage will guide you through the process to achieve the best possible return on your investment, hard work and dedication. We can also work with you on 1031 exchanges to minimize taxes on your gains.
Fortunately, Heritage is prepared for whatever the future brings. We keep our focus and run our business not based on emotion but on sound business principles and our decades of experience in this industry. If you're taking this journey of collecting, then rest assured, we're right here with you. There's nowhere else we'd rather be.
Joined: 25 Jul 2007 Last Visit: 18 Jun 2017 Posts: 148 Location: Cairns, Queensland, Australia
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:15 am Post subject:
LOL.. see there is always someone willing to help out the poor;).. they only people in real problems in this sort of economic climate are those that NEED to sell, most of us will just hang on and ride the storm, I feel for those that don't have the luxary, foutunatly I'm not one of those yet;) ...
the problem with elections, no matter who you vote for its always a politican that gets into power...
Joined: 11 Sep 2004 Last Visit: 28 Jun 2013 Posts: 2977 Location: NYC
Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:49 pm Post subject:
Floor auction is currently running. I love watching the live streaming video. Mort Kunstlers are going now with the TSR stuff running this evening, EST. _________________
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:48 am Post subject:
My thoughts...
1) It wasn't a disaster but it's a close call. I expected this after everything went to hell recently...
2) How many people have decided to sit and wait? Assuming this would go badly they figured that the prices will go even lower as the recession kicks in.
3) Whoever bought the Brom... Thank You
4) Whoever bought all those Caldwells recently lost $$$. Whoever bought any Beauvais pieces recently lost $$$. Whoever bought anything in last years Heritage auction lost $$$. Whoever bought anything based off the prices of last years Heritage auction lost $$$. If we go into a full global recession this is a pure loss. No rosy outlook I can think of.
5) Whoever here rejected my offers over the past year... Thank You
6) I have one piece that possibly(60-40) lost money. I can live with that! CC also recently sold me an early 70's Heavy Metal front cover of his for $1500. That easily makes up for my loss
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 8:41 am Post subject:
Mine was his: "The Day They Captured the Empire State Building"
That would have been fun to name all those things! I couldn't have done better though...
The Marines Who Manned a Geisha Prison Boat Attack On the Red Army's Female Barracks Belly Dancer Raid to Spring Russia's Top Rocket Man The French Doll, Hell's Angel of Paris
Joined: 11 Sep 2004 Last Visit: 28 Jun 2013 Posts: 2977 Location: NYC
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:28 am Post subject:
Rifter wrote:
My thoughts...
1) It wasn't a disaster but it's a close call. I expected this after everything went to hell recently...
I actually bought 2 of the 6 TSR items that were up for bids. I intended to buy the Dameron all along and was willing to live with the Frank's upward movement on the reserve. I also bought the Beauvais. I did not intend to bid on this one at all but I was curiously interested in it. It was the only reserve for the TSR items that I felt was at or below prevailing market prices. As such, the auction passed without a bid and sat in the unsold bin. I went in there and stared at it for awhile and talked myself into making an offer. I feel like it is a great painting at the 'right' price.
Only 1 other TSR item sold and that was Caldwell's Dragon #72 and it went with a single bid only. It was likely worth that price, but I had certainly spent a lot more than I intended. So it is cool it made it off to a good home.
The Brom, Parkinson and Elmore all went unsold for the reserves.
Rifter wrote:
2) How many people have decided to sit and wait? Assuming this would go badly they figured that the prices will go even lower as the recession kicks in.
I think the reserves were too high in spite of the fact I bought 2 pieces. I bit the bullet on the Dameron and I think the Beauvais was the right price, but the reserves on the rest of the TSR items were unrealistic by a very wide margin. I don't think they get much interest under normal market conditions.
I'd point to the pulps and pre-1960 illustrations as examples that they market is not all that dire. Lots of them did very well from the Frank collection. There is still money in the market place. Maybe they would have normally went through the roof, but there are people out there willing to spend at 5 figure clips.
Rifter wrote:
3) Whoever bought the Brom... Thank You
Unsold
Rifter wrote:
4) Whoever bought all those Caldwells recently lost $$$. Whoever bought any Beauvais pieces recently lost $$$. Whoever bought anything in last years Heritage auction lost $$$. Whoever bought anything based off the prices of last years Heritage auction lost $$$. If we go into a full global recession this is a pure loss. No rosy outlook I can think of.
A loss is only realized upon sale. So make no mistake here. If you sit on your collection which is a commodity, it is a matter of time before the markets make a recovery and start to actually make gains over the prices we have seen this previous year. That said, I wasn't willing to spend $10k on a Beauvais and probably never will. But I have been wrong in the past about an item's worth, so I reserve the right to be wrong again!
Rifter wrote:
5) Whoever here rejected my offers over the past year... Thank You
HAHA! I guess there was a good reason why my purchasing slowed down this last year.
Rifter wrote:
6) I have one piece that possibly(60-40) lost money. I can live with that! CC also recently sold me an early 70's Heavy Metal front cover of his for $1500. That easily makes up for my loss
Joined: 11 Sep 2004 Last Visit: 28 Jun 2013 Posts: 2977 Location: NYC
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:39 am Post subject:
Things that impressed me:
The movement and realized prices of the Kunstler items.
I was very impressed by the prices of some of Frank's pulps.
Chesley Bonestells did very well as did the Vallejo and Dean Morrissey. _________________
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:55 pm Post subject:
Dude, it was a disaster then
I woke up to a crazy email and then checked this but couldn't respond till now.
Congratulations Scribe! I liked that Dameron but after our communications... The Beauvais, I figured that would have the highest probability to go "high" considering that some have sold for quite a bit so recently. My favorite "Chessmen" is the one that's still available, (for waaaay too much). I think that they're all fantastic pieces though and you could surely argue that each is maybe the best as they are so close in quality IMO.
Bad for my Broms then. Those are the least likely (no possibility) of my paintings changing hands so I'll survive. I also maintain that he has the greatest "upside" of the working TSR artists.
I had tunnel vision and was pretty oblivious yesterday (obviously) about everything else I didn't want to screw up my bid Then I was ecsatatic (as I'm sure you have to be) and then too tired to type "my thoughts" for sure
Kunstler - I never really knew who he was till I saw all those covers on Heritage and then Googled him and then realized that other artists do in fact mention him as an inspiration. I always thought they were talking about an actual Master from the 1800's or something
Joined: 11 Sep 2004 Last Visit: 28 Jun 2013 Posts: 2977 Location: NYC
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:02 am Post subject:
I was flipping through the full results page, and I gotta say it doesn't look all that bad. For some reason, the TSR stalwarts were caught flat on their feet. There might be a few reasons for this, but I would assert it has mostly to do with our collector demographic. Perhaps we are not as financially stable as some of the older collectors who move in other genres? At any rate, if you can pull it off, now is a buyers market for TSR original paintings. _________________
Joined: 11 Sep 2004 Last Visit: 28 Jun 2013 Posts: 2977 Location: NYC
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:17 am Post subject:
Good article in this blog by Arnie Fenner. You might know him for his work authoring Frazetta books and starting/hosting the annual Spectrum show which showcases contemporary fantastic illustration. _________________
Joined: 12 May 2008 Last Visit: 12 Nov 2015 Posts: 144
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:55 am Post subject:
Quote:
Hay... wait a min that sounds like me;)
It's all of us You just had the misfortune that those paintings sold...
Quote:
Arnie Fenner
- I got the new Conan book and it looks really nice They used that recent Brom painting as the cover and it has all the good Frazetta interiors and it has the good Rob howard tales. I think that they kept the original editing done by the wierd tales magazine. Can't tell for sure yet but a sharp book indeed!
Quote:
So make no mistake here. If you sit on your collection which is a commodity, it is a matter of time before the markets make a recovery and start to actually make gains over the prices we have seen this previous year.
You're no economist either You have been smart though in paying what you have for paintings. Most people have overpaid. I think a lot of people expected to reap great rewards as well and that will not happen. These things could easily go much lower in the future as the recession kicks in. People will be going broke soon enough
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So no more crowing from me about the exchange rate ATM...
I didn't want to screw up my bid 
